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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Baltimore Ravens 4th & 1 at the 43

Baltimore Ravens 17 – Pittsburgh Steelers 20

What Actually Happened

(4:20) 5-J.Flacco up the middle to PIT 43 for no gain (91-S.Tuitt, 92-J.Harrison).

The Three Options

GO +1.29 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 68% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 42, worth +2.63 EP
  • 32% chance to fail: Pittsburgh Steelers takes over around their own 43, worth -1.55 EP
KICK -0.29 EP
  • 40% chance to make a 60-yard field goal: 3 points, then Pittsburgh Steelers takes over around their own 21 after the kickoff, worth +2.31 EP
  • 60% chance to miss: Pittsburgh Steelers takes over around their own 49, worth -2.00 EP
PUNT -0.43 EP
  • Pittsburgh Steelers would take over around their own 12, worth -0.43 EP

The Verdict

Chose GO ✓ matched the model