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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Pittsburgh Steelers 4th & 5 at the 31

Pittsburgh Steelers 20 – Baltimore Ravens 17

What Actually Happened

(2:29) (Field Goal formation) 8-J.Scobee 49 yard field goal is No Good, Wide Left, Center-60-G.Warren, Holder-4-J.Berry.

The Three Options

GO +0.89 EP
  • 45% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 26, worth +3.47 EP
  • 55% chance to fail: Baltimore Ravens takes over around their own 31, worth -1.20 EP
KICK +1.17 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 71% chance to make a 48-yard field goal: 3 points, then Baltimore Ravens takes over around their own 21 after the kickoff, worth +2.25 EP
  • 29% chance to miss: Baltimore Ravens takes over around their own 41, worth -1.44 EP
PUNT -0.40 EP
  • Baltimore Ravens would take over around their own 11, worth -0.40 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model