Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Baltimore Ravens 4th & 10 at the 61

Baltimore Ravens 17 – Pittsburgh Steelers 20

(2:11) (Shotgun) 5-J.Flacco sacked at BAL 29 for -10 yards (92-J.Harrison).

The Three Options

GO -1.09 EP

What Happened

33% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 51, worth +1.84 EP
67% chance to fail: Pittsburgh Steelers takes over around their own 61, worth -2.52 EP

KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (78 yards).

Chose GO Model wanted PUNT instead — cost +0.38 EP