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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Pittsburgh Steelers 4th & 4 at the 23

Pittsburgh Steelers 20 – Baltimore Ravens 17

What Actually Happened

(1:06) (Field Goal formation) 8-J.Scobee 41 yard field goal is No Good, Wide Left, Center-60-G.Warren, Holder-4-J.Berry.

The Three Options

GO +1.22 EP
  • 47% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 19, worth +3.05 EP
  • 53% chance to fail: Baltimore Ravens takes over around their own 23, worth -0.44 EP
KICK +2.07 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 85% chance to make a 40-yard field goal: 3 points, then Baltimore Ravens takes over around their own 21 after the kickoff, worth +2.57 EP
  • 15% chance to miss: Baltimore Ravens takes over around their own 33, worth -0.79 EP
PUNT -0.13 EP
  • Baltimore Ravens would take over around their own 11, worth -0.13 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model