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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 Pittsburgh Steelers 4th & 2 at the 27

Pittsburgh Steelers 0 – Baltimore Ravens 0

What Actually Happened

(7:46) (Field Goal formation) 8-J.Scobee 45 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-60-G.Warren, Holder-4-J.Berry.

The Three Options

GO +2.50 EP
Model's Pick
  • 60% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 25, worth +4.58 EP
  • 40% chance to fail: Baltimore Ravens takes over around their own 27, worth -0.58 EP
KICK +1.73 EP
What Happened
  • 79% chance to make a 44-yard field goal: 3 points, then Baltimore Ravens takes over around their own 21 after the kickoff, worth +2.63 EP
  • 21% chance to miss: Baltimore Ravens takes over around their own 37, worth -1.61 EP
PUNT +0.36 EP
  • Baltimore Ravens would take over around their own 11, worth +0.36 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.77 EP