Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Pittsburgh Steelers 4th & 9 at the 79

Pittsburgh Steelers 3 – Baltimore Ravens 7

(13:31) (Punt formation) 4-J.Berry punts 38 yards to BAL 41, Center-60-G.Warren, out of bounds.

The Three Options

GO -1.83 EP

41% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 70, worth +1.65 EP
59% chance to fail: Baltimore Ravens takes over around their own 79, worth -4.26 EP

KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (96 yards).

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model