Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Cleveland Browns 4th & 7 at the 65

Cleveland Browns 10 – Los Angeles Chargers 10

(3:46) 8-A.Lee punts 57 yards to LAC 8, Center-47-C.Hughlett. 13-K.Allen to LAC 13 for 5 yards (59-T.Carder).

The Three Options

GO -1.67 EP

37% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 58, worth +1.69 EP
63% chance to fail: Los Angeles Chargers takes over around their own 65, worth -3.67 EP

KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (82 yards).

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model