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Cleveland Browns

HC Mike Pettine
@
SD Home

San Diego Chargers

HC Mike McCoy
Sunday 2015-10-04 · 16:05 Qualcomm Stadium, San Diego US 🌧 Rain Spread 4.5 O/U 44.5

Win Probability

CLE
38.2%
SD
61.8%
🌧 Rain

Confidence: <strong>slight edge</strong> Bands are honesty-checked against held-out seasons, not a feeling about this game — see the <a href="/track-record">full track record</a>.

Key Insights

  • CLE offense: -0.112 EPA/play over its last 8 games (26th in the league)
  • Josh McCown (CLE): +0.173 EPA/dropback in prior starts
  • CLE defense: +0.108 EPA/play allowed over its last 8 games (25th in the league)
  • LAC defense: +0.023 EPA/play allowed over its last 8 games (17th in the league)

Predicted Final Score

CLE 20
–
SD 26
Projected margin: SD by 6 Projected total: 46

Typical error on unseen games: ±10.2 pts on margin, ±10.7 pts on total (held-out 2025). Treat this as a range, not a prediction to the point — see the <a href="/track-record">full track record</a>.

Injury Report — Week 4

CLE

Desmond Bryant DE Out Shoulder
Craig Robertson LB Out Ankle
Scott Solomon LB Out Ankle
K'Waun Williams CB Out Concussion
Robert Turbin RB Out Ankle
Shaun Draughn RB Questionable Back
Tashaun Gipson S Questionable Groin
Travis Benjamin WR Probable Ribs
Johnny Manziel QB Probable right Elbow
Josh McCown QB Probable right Hand
Mitchell Schwartz T Probable Thumb
Karlos Dansby LB Probable Ankle
Justin Gilbert CB Probable Hamstring
Joe Haden CB Probable Ribs

SD

Orlando Franklin G Out Ankle
Jacoby Jones WR Out Ankle
Craig Mager CB Out Hamstring
Tourek Williams LB Out Foot
Jahleel Addae S Out Ankle
King Dunlap T Doubtful Concussion
Chris Watt C Doubtful Groin
Ladarius Green TE Questionable Concussion
D.J. Fluker G Questionable Ankle
Jason Verrett CB Questionable Foot
Brandon Flowers CB Probable Knee
Chris Hairston T Probable Ankle

Pulled fresh for 2015 week 4 specifically, not a cached snapshot — this changes every week as new reports come in.

Actual Result

CLE 27
–
SD 30

Prediction missed by 3 pts on margin, 11 pts on total.

Scoring Summary

  • Q1 04:16 FG CLE (4:16) 6-T.Coons 36 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-47-C.Hughlett, Holder-8-A.Lee. CLE 3 – SD 0
  • Q1 00:54 TD LAC (:54) (Shotgun) 17-P.Rivers pass deep right to 13-K.Allen for 28 yards, TOUCHDOWN. CLE 3 – SD 6
  • Q2 14:17 TD CLE (14:17) (Shotgun) 13-J.McCown pass deep left to 29-D.Johnson for 34 yards, TOUCHDOWN. CLE 9 – SD 7
  • Q2 10:42 FG LAC (10:42) 2-J.Lambo 46 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-47-M.Windt, Holder-5-M.Scifres. CLE 10 – SD 10
  • Q2 01:41 FG LAC (1:41) 2-J.Lambo 45 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-47-M.Windt, Holder-5-M.Scifres. CLE 10 – SD 13
  • Q2 00:06 FG CLE (:06) 6-T.Coons 28 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-47-C.Hughlett, Holder-8-A.Lee. CLE 13 – SD 13
  • Q3 05:58 FG CLE (5:58) 6-T.Coons 33 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-47-C.Hughlett, Holder-8-A.Lee. CLE 16 – SD 13
  • Q3 04:28 TD LAC (4:28) (Shotgun) 17-P.Rivers pass deep right to 89-L.Green for 19 yards, TOUCHDOWN [95-A.Bryant]. CLE 16 – SD 19
  • Q4 10:01 FG CLE (10:01) 6-T.Coons 40 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-47-C.Hughlett, Holder-8-A.Lee. CLE 19 – SD 20
  • Q4 07:29 TD LAC (7:29) 17-P.Rivers pass short middle to 83-J.Phillips for 1 yard, TOUCHDOWN. CLE 19 – SD 26
  • Q4 02:13 TD CLE (2:13) 13-J.McCown pass short right to 82-G.Barnidge for 1 yard, TOUCHDOWN. CLE 25 – SD 27
  • Q4 00:00 FG LAC (:00) 2-J.Lambo 34 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-47-M.Windt, Holder-5-M.Scifres. CLE 27 – SD 30

Fourth-Down Decisions

  • Q1 CLE 4th & 1 at the 56
    Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +1.53 EP
    p(convert) 68%

    (14:20) 8-A.Lee punts 48 yards to LAC 8, Center-47-C.Hughlett, fair catch by 13-K.Allen.

  • Q1 LAC 4th & 10 at the 92
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 38%

    (13:58) 5-M.Scifres punts 46 yards to CLE 46, Center-47-M.Windt. 11-T.Benjamin to LAC 44 for 10 yards (48-N.Dzubnar). PENALTY on CLE-33-J.Poyer, Offensive Holding, 10 yards, enforced at LAC 44.

  • Q1 LAC 4th & 19 at the 49
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 24% p(FG) 23%

    (10:45) 5-M.Scifres punts 31 yards to CLE 18, Center-47-M.Windt, downed by LAC-52-D.Perryman.

  • Q1 CLE 4th & 2 at the 18
    Chose KICK Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.45 EP
    p(convert) 52% p(FG) 90%

    (4:16) 6-T.Coons 36 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-47-C.Hughlett, Holder-8-A.Lee.

  • Q2 LAC 4th & 4 at the 28
    Chose KICK ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 45% p(FG) 76%

    (10:42) 2-J.Lambo 46 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-47-M.Windt, Holder-5-M.Scifres.

  • Q2 CLE 4th & 5 at the 49
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 41% p(FG) 23%

    (6:03) 8-A.Lee punts 30 yards to LAC 19, Center-47-C.Hughlett, out of bounds.

  • Q2 LAC 4th & 1 at the 72
    Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +1.10 EP
    p(convert) 72%

    (4:48) 5-M.Scifres punts 40 yards to CLE 32, Center-47-M.Windt, downed by LAC-43-B.Oliver.

  • Q2 CLE 4th & 7 at the 65
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 37%

    (3:46) 8-A.Lee punts 57 yards to LAC 8, Center-47-C.Hughlett. 13-K.Allen to LAC 13 for 5 yards (59-T.Carder).

  • Q2 LAC 4th & 10 at the 27
    Chose KICK ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 30% p(FG) 78%

    (1:41) 2-J.Lambo 45 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-47-M.Windt, Holder-5-M.Scifres.

  • Q3 LAC 4th & 13 at the 39
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 28% p(FG) 48%

    (11:26) 5-M.Scifres punts 22 yards to CLE 17, Center-47-M.Windt, out of bounds.

  • Q3 CLE 4th & 10 at the 15
    Chose KICK ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 26% p(FG) 93%

    (5:58) 6-T.Coons 33 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-47-C.Hughlett, Holder-8-A.Lee.

  • Q3 CLE 4th & 8 at the 78
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 37%

    (3:34) 8-A.Lee punts 57 yards to LAC 21, Center-47-C.Hughlett, fair catch by 13-K.Allen.

  • Q3 LAC 4th & 14 at the 54
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 29%

    (:03) 5-M.Scifres punts 47 yards to CLE 7, Center-47-M.Windt. 11-T.Benjamin to CLE 38 for 31 yards (83-J.Phillips).

  • Q4 CLE 4th & 5 at the 22
    Chose KICK ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 37% p(FG) 86%

    (10:01) 6-T.Coons 40 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-47-C.Hughlett, Holder-8-A.Lee.

  • Q4 LAC 4th & 2 at the 16 late-game
    Chose KICK ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 55% p(FG) 92%

    (:00) 2-J.Lambo 34 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-47-M.Windt, Holder-5-M.Scifres.