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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Los Angeles Chargers 4th & 10 at the 27

Los Angeles Chargers 10 – Cleveland Browns 10

What Actually Happened

(1:41) 2-J.Lambo 45 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-47-M.Windt, Holder-5-M.Scifres.

The Three Options

GO +0.81 EP
  • 30% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 17, worth +4.79 EP
  • 70% chance to fail: Cleveland Browns takes over around their own 27, worth -0.93 EP
KICK +1.41 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 78% chance to make a 44-yard field goal: 3 points, then Cleveland Browns takes over around their own 21 after the kickoff, worth +2.28 EP
  • 22% chance to miss: Cleveland Browns takes over around their own 37, worth -1.61 EP
PUNT -0.14 EP
  • Cleveland Browns would take over around their own 11, worth -0.14 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model