Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 Los Angeles Chargers 4th & 10 at the 92

Los Angeles Chargers 0 – Cleveland Browns 0

What Actually Happened

(13:58) 5-M.Scifres punts 46 yards to CLE 46, Center-47-M.Windt. 11-T.Benjamin to LAC 44 for 10 yards (48-N.Dzubnar). PENALTY on CLE-33-J.Poyer, Offensive Holding, 10 yards, enforced at LAC 44.

The Three Options

GO -2.75 EP

38% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 82, worth +1.21 EP
62% chance to fail: Cleveland Browns takes over around their own 92, worth -5.19 EP

KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (109 yards).

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model