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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 Los Angeles Chargers 4th & 13 at the 39

Los Angeles Chargers 13 – Cleveland Browns 13

What Actually Happened

(11:26) 5-M.Scifres punts 22 yards to CLE 17, Center-47-M.Windt, out of bounds.

The Three Options

GO -0.18 EP
  • 28% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 26, worth +4.45 EP
  • 72% chance to fail: Cleveland Browns takes over around their own 39, worth -1.98 EP
KICK -0.32 EP
  • 48% chance to make a 56-yard field goal: 3 points, then Cleveland Browns takes over around their own 21 after the kickoff, worth +2.31 EP
  • 52% chance to miss: Cleveland Browns takes over around their own 48, worth -2.74 EP
PUNT -0.07 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • Cleveland Browns would take over around their own 11, worth -0.07 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model