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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 Cleveland Browns 4th & 8 at the 78

Cleveland Browns 16 – Los Angeles Chargers 20

What Actually Happened

(3:34) 8-A.Lee punts 57 yards to LAC 21, Center-47-C.Hughlett, fair catch by 13-K.Allen.

The Three Options

GO -2.44 EP
  • 37% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 70, worth +1.22 EP
  • 63% chance to fail: Los Angeles Chargers takes over around their own 78, worth -4.58 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (95 yards).

PUNT -2.00 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • Los Angeles Chargers would take over around their own 35, worth -2.00 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model