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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 Los Angeles Chargers 4th & 14 at the 54

Los Angeles Chargers 20 – Cleveland Browns 16

What Actually Happened

(:03) 5-M.Scifres punts 47 yards to CLE 7, Center-47-M.Windt. 11-T.Benjamin to CLE 38 for 31 yards (83-J.Phillips).

The Three Options

GO -1.18 EP
  • 29% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 40, worth +3.14 EP
  • 71% chance to fail: Cleveland Browns takes over around their own 54, worth -2.91 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (71 yards).

PUNT -0.64 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • Cleveland Browns would take over around their own 16, worth -0.64 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model