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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Cleveland Browns 4th & 5 at the 22

Cleveland Browns 16 – Los Angeles Chargers 20

What Actually Happened

(10:01) 6-T.Coons 40 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-47-C.Hughlett, Holder-8-A.Lee.

The Three Options

GO +1.23 EP
  • 37% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 17, worth +4.77 EP
  • 63% chance to fail: Los Angeles Chargers takes over around their own 22, worth -0.88 EP
KICK +1.61 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 86% chance to make a 39-yard field goal: 3 points, then Los Angeles Chargers takes over around their own 21 after the kickoff, worth +2.12 EP
  • 14% chance to miss: Los Angeles Chargers takes over around their own 32, worth -1.43 EP
PUNT -0.13 EP
  • Los Angeles Chargers would take over around their own 11, worth -0.13 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model