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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 Los Angeles Chargers 4th & 19 at the 49

Los Angeles Chargers 0 – Cleveland Browns 0

What Actually Happened

(10:45) 5-M.Scifres punts 31 yards to CLE 18, Center-47-M.Windt, downed by LAC-52-D.Perryman.

The Three Options

GO -0.88 EP
  • 24% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 30, worth +4.18 EP
  • 76% chance to fail: Cleveland Browns takes over around their own 49, worth -2.48 EP
KICK -1.30 EP
  • 23% chance to make a 66-yard field goal: 3 points, then Cleveland Browns takes over around their own 21 after the kickoff, worth +2.59 EP
  • 77% chance to miss: Cleveland Browns takes over around their own 49, worth -2.49 EP
PUNT +0.12 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • Cleveland Browns would take over around their own 14, worth +0.12 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model