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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Los Angeles Chargers 4th & 2 at the 16

Los Angeles Chargers 27 – Cleveland Browns 27

What Actually Happened

(:00) 2-J.Lambo 34 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-47-M.Windt, Holder-5-M.Scifres.

The Three Options

GO +0.86 EP
  • 55% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 14, worth +1.53 EP
  • 45% chance to fail: Cleveland Browns takes over around their own 16, worth +0.04 EP
KICK +2.77 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 92% chance to make a 33-yard field goal: 3 points, then Cleveland Browns takes over around their own 21 after the kickoff, worth +3.01 EP
  • 8% chance to miss: Cleveland Browns takes over around their own 26, worth -0.01 EP
PUNT +0.05 EP
  • Cleveland Browns would take over around their own 11, worth +0.05 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model