4TH&DATA
EN ES
Back to Game

Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 Cleveland Browns 4th & 2 at the 18

Cleveland Browns 0 – Los Angeles Chargers 0

What Actually Happened

(4:16) 6-T.Coons 36 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-47-C.Hughlett, Holder-8-A.Lee.

The Three Options

GO +1.98 EP
Model's Pick
  • 52% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 16, worth +4.70 EP
  • 48% chance to fail: Los Angeles Chargers takes over around their own 18, worth -1.00 EP
KICK +1.53 EP
What Happened
  • 90% chance to make a 35-yard field goal: 3 points, then Los Angeles Chargers takes over around their own 21 after the kickoff, worth +1.86 EP
  • 10% chance to miss: Los Angeles Chargers takes over around their own 28, worth -1.64 EP
PUNT -0.38 EP
  • Los Angeles Chargers would take over around their own 11, worth -0.38 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.45 EP