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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 New Orleans Saints 4th & 3 at the 78

New Orleans Saints 7 – Dallas Cowboys 10

What Actually Happened

(:53) 6-T.Morstead punts 33 yards to DAL 45, Center-47-J.Drescher, out of bounds.

The Three Options

GO -1.43 EP
  • 56% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 75, worth +0.76 EP
  • 44% chance to fail: Dallas Cowboys takes over around their own 78, worth -4.17 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (95 yards).

PUNT -1.13 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • Dallas Cowboys would take over around their own 35, worth -1.13 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model