Win Probability
Confidence: <strong>coin flip</strong> Bands are honesty-checked against held-out seasons, not a feeling about this game — see the <a href="/track-record">full track record</a>.
Key Insights
- NO defense: +0.164 EPA/play allowed over its last 8 games (30th in the league)
- DAL offense: +0.031 EPA/play over its last 8 games (12th in the league)
- Indoors — weather neutralised
- NO offense: +0.030 EPA/play over its last 8 games (13th in the league)
- Drew Brees (NO): -0.003 EPA/dropback in prior starts (NO starting Drew Brees in place of Luke McCown)
Predicted Final Score
Typical error on unseen games: ±10.2 pts on margin, ±10.7 pts on total (held-out 2025). Treat this as a range, not a prediction to the point — see the <a href="/track-record">full track record</a>.
Injury Report — Week 4
DAL
NO
Pulled fresh for 2015 week 4 specifically, not a cached snapshot — this changes every week as new reports come in.
Actual Result
Prediction missed by 7 pts on margin, 1 pts on total.
Scoring Summary
- Q1 09:46 FG DAL (9:46) 5-D.Bailey 30 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-91-L.Ladouceur, Holder-6-C.Jones. DAL 3 – NO 0
- Q1 03:52 TD NO (3:52) (Shotgun) 9-D.Brees pass short left to 89-J.Hill for 3 yards, TOUCHDOWN. Pass 3, YAC 0 DAL 3 – NO 6
- Q2 13:37 TD DAL (13:37) 21-J.Randle right guard to NO 1 for no gain (50-S.Anthony). FUMBLES (50-S.Anthony), RECOVERED by NO-56-M.Mauti at NO 4. 56-M.Mauti to NO 4 for no gain (44-T.Clutts). The Replay Official reviewed the runner broke the plane ruling, and the play was REVERSED. 21-J.Randle right guard for 1 yard, TOUCHDOWN. DAL 9 – NO 7
- Q3 11:24 FG NO (11:24) 2-Z.Hocker 51 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-47-J.Drescher, Holder-7-L.McCown. DAL 10 – NO 10
- Q3 08:25 FG DAL (8:25) 5-D.Bailey 38 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-91-L.Ladouceur, Holder-6-C.Jones. DAL 13 – NO 10
- Q3 01:30 FG NO (1:30) 2-Z.Hocker 29 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-47-J.Drescher, Holder-7-L.McCown. DAL 13 – NO 13
- Q4 08:02 TD NO (8:02) 29-K.Robinson left tackle for 1 yard, TOUCHDOWN. PENALTY on NO-29-K.Robinson, Unsportsmanlike Conduct, 15 yards, enforced between downs. DAL 13 – NO 19
- Q4 01:56 TD DAL (1:56) (Shotgun) 3-B.Weeden pass deep right to 83-T.Williams for 17 yards, TOUCHDOWN. NO-78-B.Richardson was injured during the play. His return is Probable. DAL 19 – NO 20
- Q5 14:57 TD NO (14:57) (Shotgun) 9-D.Brees pass deep right to 28-C.Spiller for 80 yards, TOUCHDOWN. Pass 18, YAC 62 DAL 20 – NO 26
Fourth-Down Decisions
-
Q1 NO 4th & 6 at the 61Chose PUNT ✓ matched the modelp(convert) 42%
(14:07) 6-T.Morstead punts 47 yards to DAL 14, Center-47-J.Drescher, fair catch by 11-C.Beasley.
-
Q1 DAL 4th & 5 at the 12Chose KICK ✓ matched the modelp(convert) 40% p(FG) 95%
(9:46) 5-D.Bailey 30 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-91-L.Ladouceur, Holder-6-C.Jones.
-
Q2 NO 4th & 15 at the 60Chose PUNT ✓ matched the modelp(convert) 28%
(7:38) 6-T.Morstead punts 43 yards to DAL 17, Center-47-J.Drescher, fair catch by 11-C.Beasley.
-
Q2 DAL 4th & 6 at the 55Chose PUNT ✓ matched the modelp(convert) 43%
(2:00) 6-C.Jones punts 40 yards to NO 15, Center-91-L.Ladouceur, downed by DAL. No player touched the ball to down it. Officials blew the play dead.
-
Q2 NO 4th & 3 at the 78Chose PUNT ✓ matched the modelp(convert) 56%
(:53) 6-T.Morstead punts 33 yards to DAL 45, Center-47-J.Drescher, out of bounds.
-
Q2 DAL 4th & 10 at the 55Chose PUNT ✓ matched the modelp(convert) 35%
(:26) 6-C.Jones punts 36 yards to NO 19, Center-91-L.Ladouceur, fair catch by 23-M.Murphy. INJURY UPDATE: (DALLAS): #50, S.Lee: Concussion, OUT. #84, J.Hanna: Ankle, Probable to return.
-
Q3 DAL 4th & 1 at the 82Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +1.56 EPp(convert) 74%
(12:56) 6-C.Jones punts 40 yards to NO 42, Center-91-L.Ladouceur. 23-M.Murphy to DAL 38 for 20 yards (91-L.Ladouceur).
-
Q3 NO 4th & 5 at the 33Chose KICK ✓ matched the modelp(convert) 41% p(FG) 71%
(11:24) 2-Z.Hocker 51 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-47-J.Drescher, Holder-7-L.McCown.
-
Q3 DAL 4th & 20 at the 20Chose KICK ✓ matched the modelp(convert) 22% p(FG) 90%
(8:25) 5-D.Bailey 38 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-91-L.Ladouceur, Holder-6-C.Jones.
-
Q3 NO 4th & 6 at the 11Chose KICK ✓ matched the modelp(convert) 36% p(FG) 96%
(1:30) 2-Z.Hocker 29 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-47-J.Drescher, Holder-7-L.McCown.
-
Q4 DAL 4th & 16 at the 60Chose PUNT ✓ matched the modelp(convert) 28%
(12:54) 6-C.Jones punts 40 yards to NO 20, Center-91-L.Ladouceur. 23-M.Murphy to NO 28 for 8 yards (51-K.Wilber). PENALTY on DAL-23-C.White, Player Out of Bounds on Punt, 5 yards, enforced at NO 28.
-
Q4 NO 4th & 1 at the 45Chose GO ✓ matched the modelp(convert) 69% p(FG) 41%
(10:07) 9-D.Brees pass short right to 29-K.Robinson pushed ob at DAL 36 for 9 yards (42-B.Church). Penalty on DAL-24-M.Claiborne, Illegal Use of Hands, declined. Pass 0, YAC 9
-
Q4 DAL 4th & 2 at the 62Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.32 EPp(convert) 62%
(5:59) 6-C.Jones punts 53 yards to NO 9, Center-91-L.Ladouceur. 23-M.Murphy to NO 15 for 6 yards (57-D.Wilson). A flag was thrown for block in the back, but picked up and waved off.
-
Q4 NO 4th & 5 at the 52 late-gameChose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.41 EPp(convert) 44% p(FG) 26%
(4:12) 2-Z.Hocker punts 43 yards to DAL 9, Center-47-J.Drescher, fair catch by 11-C.Beasley.
-
Q4 DAL 4th & 7 at the 17 late-gameChose GO Model wanted KICK instead — cost +0.83 EPp(convert) 36% p(FG) 93%
(1:56) (Shotgun) 3-B.Weeden pass deep right to 83-T.Williams for 17 yards, TOUCHDOWN. NO-78-B.Richardson was injured during the play. His return is Probable.