Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Dallas Cowboys 4th & 10 at the 55

Dallas Cowboys 10 – New Orleans Saints 7

What Actually Happened

(:26) 6-C.Jones punts 36 yards to NO 19, Center-91-L.Ladouceur, fair catch by 23-M.Murphy. INJURY UPDATE: (DALLAS): #50, S.Lee: Concussion, OUT. #84, J.Hanna: Ankle, Probable to return.

The Three Options

GO -0.62 EP

35% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 45, worth +1.84 EP
65% chance to fail: New Orleans Saints takes over around their own 55, worth -1.92 EP

KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (72 yards).

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model