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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 Dallas Cowboys 4th & 1 at the 82

Dallas Cowboys 10 – New Orleans Saints 7

What Actually Happened

(12:56) 6-C.Jones punts 40 yards to NO 42, Center-91-L.Ladouceur. 23-M.Murphy to DAL 38 for 20 yards (91-L.Ladouceur).

The Three Options

GO -0.77 EP
Model's Pick
  • 74% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 81, worth +0.66 EP
  • 26% chance to fail: New Orleans Saints takes over around their own 82, worth -4.93 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (99 yards).

PUNT -2.33 EP
What Happened
  • New Orleans Saints would take over around their own 40, worth -2.33 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +1.56 EP