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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 Dallas Cowboys 4th & 20 at the 20

Dallas Cowboys 10 – New Orleans Saints 10

What Actually Happened

(8:25) 5-D.Bailey 38 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-91-L.Ladouceur, Holder-6-C.Jones.

The Three Options

GO +0.60 EP
  • 22% chance to convert, and it's a touchdown from here: worth +5.95 EP
  • 78% chance to fail: New Orleans Saints takes over around their own 20, worth -0.87 EP
KICK +1.66 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 90% chance to make a 37-yard field goal: 3 points, then New Orleans Saints takes over around their own 21 after the kickoff, worth +2.01 EP
  • 10% chance to miss: New Orleans Saints takes over around their own 30, worth -1.52 EP
PUNT -0.18 EP
  • New Orleans Saints would take over around their own 11, worth -0.18 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model