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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 New Orleans Saints 4th & 6 at the 11

New Orleans Saints 10 – Dallas Cowboys 13

What Actually Happened

(1:30) 2-Z.Hocker 29 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-47-J.Drescher, Holder-7-L.McCown.

The Three Options

GO +2.12 EP
  • 36% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 5, worth +5.82 EP
  • 64% chance to fail: Dallas Cowboys takes over around their own 11, worth +0.09 EP
KICK +2.19 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 96% chance to make a 28-yard field goal: 3 points, then Dallas Cowboys takes over around their own 21 after the kickoff, worth +2.31 EP
  • 4% chance to miss: Dallas Cowboys takes over around their own 22, worth -0.69 EP
PUNT +0.09 EP
  • Dallas Cowboys would take over around their own 11, worth +0.09 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model