Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Dallas Cowboys 4th & 16 at the 60

Dallas Cowboys 13 – New Orleans Saints 13

What Actually Happened

(12:54) 6-C.Jones punts 40 yards to NO 20, Center-91-L.Ladouceur. 23-M.Murphy to NO 28 for 8 yards (51-K.Wilber). PENALTY on DAL-23-C.White, Player Out of Bounds on Punt, 5 yards, enforced at NO 28.

The Three Options

GO -1.50 EP

28% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 44, worth +2.88 EP
72% chance to fail: New Orleans Saints takes over around their own 60, worth -3.23 EP

KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (77 yards).

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model