4TH&DATA
EN ES
Back to Game

Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 Dallas Cowboys 4th & 5 at the 12

Dallas Cowboys 0 – New Orleans Saints 0

What Actually Happened

(9:46) 5-D.Bailey 30 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-91-L.Ladouceur, Holder-6-C.Jones.

The Three Options

GO +1.90 EP
Model's Pick
  • 40% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 7, worth +5.42 EP
  • 60% chance to fail: New Orleans Saints takes over around their own 12, worth -0.48 EP
KICK +1.74 EP
What Happened
  • 95% chance to make a 29-yard field goal: 3 points, then New Orleans Saints takes over around their own 21 after the kickoff, worth +1.88 EP
  • 5% chance to miss: New Orleans Saints takes over around their own 22, worth -1.16 EP
PUNT -0.34 EP
  • New Orleans Saints would take over around their own 11, worth -0.34 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model