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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 New Orleans Saints 4th & 5 at the 52

New Orleans Saints 20 – Dallas Cowboys 13

What Actually Happened

(4:12) 2-Z.Hocker punts 43 yards to DAL 9, Center-47-J.Drescher, fair catch by 11-C.Beasley.

The Three Options

GO -0.29 EP
Model's Pick
  • 44% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 47, worth +2.26 EP
  • 56% chance to fail: Dallas Cowboys takes over around their own 52, worth -2.27 EP
KICK -1.14 EP
  • 26% chance to make a 69-yard field goal: 3 points, then Dallas Cowboys takes over around their own 21 after the kickoff, worth +2.06 EP
  • 74% chance to miss: Dallas Cowboys takes over around their own 49, worth -2.23 EP
PUNT -0.70 EP
What Happened
  • Dallas Cowboys would take over around their own 15, worth -0.70 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.41 EP