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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Dallas Cowboys 4th & 7 at the 17

Dallas Cowboys 13 – New Orleans Saints 20

What Actually Happened

(1:56) (Shotgun) 3-B.Weeden pass deep right to 83-T.Williams for 17 yards, TOUCHDOWN. NO-78-B.Richardson was injured during the play. His return is Probable.

The Three Options

GO +1.12 EP
What Happened
  • 36% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 10, worth +4.36 EP
  • 64% chance to fail: New Orleans Saints takes over around their own 17, worth -0.67 EP
KICK +1.95 EP
Model's Pick
  • 93% chance to make a 34-yard field goal: 3 points, then New Orleans Saints takes over around their own 21 after the kickoff, worth +2.19 EP
  • 7% chance to miss: New Orleans Saints takes over around their own 27, worth -1.06 EP
PUNT -0.42 EP
  • New Orleans Saints would take over around their own 11, worth -0.42 EP

The Verdict

Chose GO Model wanted KICK instead — cost +0.83 EP