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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 San Francisco 49ers 4th & 1 at the 81

San Francisco 49ers 0 – Green Bay Packers 7

What Actually Happened

(12:27) 5-B.Pinion punts 59 yards to GB 22, Center-86-K.Nelson. 33-M.Hyde to GB 22 for no gain (31-L.McCray; 86-K.Nelson). Penalty on GB-36-L.Gunter, Illegal Block Above the Waist, declined. PENALTY on GB-28-S.Richardson, Offensive Holding, 10 yards, enforced at GB 22.

The Three Options

GO -0.50 EP
Model's Pick
  • 71% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 80, worth +1.15 EP
  • 29% chance to fail: Green Bay Packers takes over around their own 81, worth -4.48 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (98 yards).

PUNT -1.57 EP
What Happened
  • Green Bay Packers would take over around their own 38, worth -1.57 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +1.07 EP