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Green Bay Packers

HC Mike McCarthy
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SF Home

San Francisco 49ers

HC Jim Tomsula
Sunday 2015-10-04 · 16:25 Levi's Stadium, Santa Clara US ☀️ Clear Spread -7.5 O/U 48.0

Win Probability

GB
80.8%
SF
19.2%
☀️ Clear

Confidence: <strong>strong edge</strong> Bands are honesty-checked against held-out seasons, not a feeling about this game — see the <a href="/track-record">full track record</a>.

Key Insights

  • GB offense: +0.224 EPA/play over its last 8 games (3rd in the league)
  • QB edge to GB: Colin Kaepernick (SF) -0.107 vs Aaron Rodgers (GB) +0.420 EPA/dropback
  • SF offense: -0.133 EPA/play over its last 8 games (28th in the league)
  • SF defense: +0.144 EPA/play allowed over its last 8 games (28th in the league)

Predicted Final Score

GB 29
–
SF 19
Projected margin: GB by 10 Projected total: 48

Typical error on unseen games: ±10.2 pts on margin, ±10.7 pts on total (held-out 2025). Treat this as a range, not a prediction to the point — see the <a href="/track-record">full track record</a>.

Injury Report — Week 4

GB

Bryan Bulaga T Out Knee
Demetri Goodson CB Doubtful Hamstring
Jake Ryan LB Doubtful Hamstring
Davante Adams WR Questionable Ankle
Morgan Burnett S Questionable Calf
Randall Cobb WR Probable Shoulder
Datone Jones DE Probable Head
Eddie Lacy RB Probable Ankle
Mike Neal LB Probable Groin
Sean Richardson S Probable Ankle
Aaron Ripkowski RB Probable Shoulder

SF

Vernon Davis TE Doubtful Knee
Kenneth Acker CB Probable Back
Alex Boone G Probable Shoulder
Navorro Bowman LB Probable Not Injury Related
Ahmad Brooks LB Probable Shoulder
Reggie Bush RB Probable Calf
Bruce Ellington WR Probable Ankle
L.J. McCray S Probable Hip
Vance McDonald TE Probable Knee
Eric Reid S Probable Hip

Pulled fresh for 2015 week 4 specifically, not a cached snapshot — this changes every week as new reports come in.

Actual Result

GB 17
–
SF 3

Prediction missed by 4 pts on margin, 28 pts on total.

Scoring Summary

  • Q1 09:12 TD GB (9:12) (Shotgun) 12-A.Rodgers pass short left to 82-R.Rodgers for 9 yards, TOUCHDOWN. GB 6 – SF 0
  • Q2 04:28 FG SF (4:28) 9-P.Dawson 33 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-86-K.Nelson, Holder-5-B.Pinion. GB 7 – SF 3
  • Q3 07:14 TD GB (7:14) 73-J.Tretter reported in as eligible. 30-J.Kuhn up the middle for 1 yard, TOUCHDOWN. GB 13 – SF 3
  • Q3 00:49 FG GB (:49) 2-M.Crosby 31 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-61-B.Goode, Holder-8-T.Masthay. GB 17 – SF 3

Fourth-Down Decisions

  • Q1 SF 4th & 2 at the 60
    Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.37 EP
    p(convert) 57%

    (6:51) 5-B.Pinion punts 45 yards to GB 15, Center-86-K.Nelson, out of bounds.

  • Q1 GB 4th & 9 at the 63
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 40%

    (2:43) 8-T.Masthay punts 48 yards to SF 15, Center-61-B.Goode. 38-J.Hayne pushed ob at SF 21 for 6 yards (22-A.Ripkowski).

  • Q1 SF 4th & 9 at the 66
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 33%

    (:39) 5-B.Pinion punts 21 yards to GB 45, Center-86-K.Nelson, out of bounds.

  • Q2 GB 4th & 2 at the 47
    Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +1.25 EP
    p(convert) 63% p(FG) 32%

    (14:25) 8-T.Masthay punts 37 yards to SF 10, Center-61-B.Goode, fair catch by 38-J.Hayne.

  • Q2 SF 4th & 1 at the 81
    Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +1.07 EP
    p(convert) 71%

    (12:27) 5-B.Pinion punts 59 yards to GB 22, Center-86-K.Nelson. 33-M.Hyde to GB 22 for no gain (31-L.McCray; 86-K.Nelson). Penalty on GB-36-L.Gunter, Illegal Block Above the Waist, declined. PENALTY on GB-28-S.Richardson, Offensive Holding, 10 yards, enforced at GB 22.

  • Q2 GB 4th & 1 at the 79
    Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +1.70 EP
    p(convert) 77%

    (10:59) 8-T.Masthay punts 41 yards to SF 38, Center-61-B.Goode. 38-J.Hayne MUFFS catch, recovered by SF-36-D.Johnson at SF 28. 36-D.Johnson to SF 28 for no gain (83-J.Janis). T.Masthay credited with 51-yd punt.

  • Q2 SF 4th & 15 at the 15
    Chose KICK ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 21% p(FG) 93%

    (4:28) 9-P.Dawson 33 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-86-K.Nelson, Holder-5-B.Pinion.

  • Q2 GB 4th & 1 at the 42
    Chose GO ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 73% p(FG) 45%

    (1:57) (Shotgun) 27-E.Lacy left tackle to SF 32 for 10 yards (57-M.Wilhoite).

  • Q2 GB 4th & 1 at the 23
    Chose GO ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 71% p(FG) 86%

    (:40) (Shotgun) 27-E.Lacy left guard to SF 17 for 6 yards (90-G.Dorsey).

  • Q2 GB 4th & 19 at the 26
    Chose KICK ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 25% p(FG) 82%

    (:02) 2-M.Crosby 44 yard field goal is No Good, Wide Left, Center-61-B.Goode, Holder-8-T.Masthay.

  • Q3 SF 4th & 11 at the 66
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 30%

    (11:51) 5-B.Pinion punts 36 yards to GB 30, Center-86-K.Nelson. 33-M.Hyde to GB 39 for 9 yards (50-N.Bellore).

  • Q3 SF 4th & 12 at the 82
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 31%

    (5:32) 5-B.Pinion punts 30 yards to SF 48, Center-86-K.Nelson, out of bounds.

  • Q3 GB 4th & 7 at the 13
    Chose KICK ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 38% p(FG) 95%

    (:49) 2-M.Crosby 31 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-61-B.Goode, Holder-8-T.Masthay.

  • Q4 SF 4th & 6 at the 74
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 41%

    (13:22) 5-B.Pinion punts 56 yards to GB 18, Center-86-K.Nelson. 33-M.Hyde pushed ob at GB 23 for 5 yards (50-N.Bellore).

  • Q4 GB 4th & 17 at the 60
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 30%

    (9:31) 8-T.Masthay punts 27 yards to SF 33, Center-61-B.Goode, out of bounds.

  • Q4 GB 4th & 10 at the 76
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 40%

    (6:09) 8-T.Masthay punts 49 yards to SF 27, Center-61-B.Goode. 38-J.Hayne to SF 33 for 6 yards (32-C.Banjo).

  • Q4 SF 4th & 5 at the 15 late-game
    Chose GO Model wanted KICK instead — cost +0.48 EP
    p(convert) 36% p(FG) 93%

    (4:29) (Shotgun) 7-C.Kaepernick sacked at GB 23 for -8 yards (96-M.Neal).

  • Q4 GB 4th & 6 at the 51 late-game
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 46% p(FG) 24%

    (:19) 8-T.Masthay punts 23 yards to SF 28, Center-61-B.Goode, out of bounds.