4TH&DATA
EN ES
Back to Game

Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Green Bay Packers 4th & 1 at the 79

Green Bay Packers 7 – San Francisco 49ers 0

What Actually Happened

(10:59) 8-T.Masthay punts 41 yards to SF 38, Center-61-B.Goode. 38-J.Hayne MUFFS catch, recovered by SF-36-D.Johnson at SF 28. 36-D.Johnson to SF 28 for no gain (83-J.Janis). T.Masthay credited with 51-yd punt.

The Three Options

GO -0.57 EP
Model's Pick
  • 77% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 78, worth +0.66 EP
  • 23% chance to fail: San Francisco 49ers takes over around their own 79, worth -4.59 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (96 yards).

PUNT -2.27 EP
What Happened
  • San Francisco 49ers would take over around their own 36, worth -2.27 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +1.70 EP