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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Green Bay Packers 4th & 1 at the 42

Green Bay Packers 7 – San Francisco 49ers 3

What Actually Happened

(1:57) (Shotgun) 27-E.Lacy left tackle to SF 32 for 10 yards (57-M.Wilhoite).

The Three Options

GO +1.57 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 73% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 41, worth +2.96 EP
  • 27% chance to fail: San Francisco 49ers takes over around their own 42, worth -2.18 EP
KICK -0.57 EP
  • 45% chance to make a 59-yard field goal: 3 points, then San Francisco 49ers takes over around their own 21 after the kickoff, worth +1.93 EP
  • 55% chance to miss: San Francisco 49ers takes over around their own 49, worth -2.59 EP
PUNT -0.67 EP
  • San Francisco 49ers would take over around their own 12, worth -0.67 EP

The Verdict

Chose GO ✓ matched the model