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Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades.
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Q2
Green Bay Packers
4th & 1 at the 23
Green Bay Packers 7 – San Francisco 49ers 3
What Actually Happened
(:40) (Shotgun) 27-E.Lacy left guard to SF 17 for 6 yards (90-G.Dorsey).
The Three Options
GO
+2.54 EP
What Happened
Model's Pick
-
71% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 22, worth +3.78 EP
- 29% chance to fail: San Francisco 49ers takes over around their own 23, worth -0.49 EP
KICK
+2.04 EP
- 86% chance to make a 40-yard field goal: 3 points, then San Francisco 49ers takes over around their own 21 after the kickoff, worth +2.53 EP
- 14% chance to miss: San Francisco 49ers takes over around their own 33, worth -0.98 EP
PUNT
-0.10 EP
- San Francisco 49ers would take over around their own 11, worth -0.10 EP
The Verdict
Chose GO
✓ matched the model
