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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Green Bay Packers 4th & 19 at the 26

Green Bay Packers 7 – San Francisco 49ers 3

What Actually Happened

(:02) 2-M.Crosby 44 yard field goal is No Good, Wide Left, Center-61-B.Goode, Holder-8-T.Masthay.

The Three Options

GO +0.73 EP
  • 25% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 7, worth +2.89 EP
  • 75% chance to fail: San Francisco 49ers takes over around their own 26, worth +0.01 EP
KICK +2.43 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 82% chance to make a 43-yard field goal: 3 points, then San Francisco 49ers takes over around their own 21 after the kickoff, worth +3.00 EP
  • 18% chance to miss: San Francisco 49ers takes over around their own 36, worth -0.10 EP
PUNT +0.02 EP
  • San Francisco 49ers would take over around their own 11, worth +0.02 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model