Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 San Francisco 49ers 4th & 6 at the 74

San Francisco 49ers 3 – Green Bay Packers 17

(13:22) 5-B.Pinion punts 56 yards to GB 18, Center-86-K.Nelson. 33-M.Hyde pushed ob at GB 23 for 5 yards (50-N.Bellore).

The Three Options

GO -1.87 EP

41% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 68, worth +1.44 EP
59% chance to fail: Green Bay Packers takes over around their own 74, worth -4.15 EP

KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (91 yards).

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model