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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Green Bay Packers 4th & 17 at the 60

Green Bay Packers 17 – San Francisco 49ers 3

What Actually Happened

(9:31) 8-T.Masthay punts 27 yards to SF 33, Center-61-B.Goode, out of bounds.

The Three Options

GO -1.27 EP
  • 30% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 43, worth +2.78 EP
  • 70% chance to fail: San Francisco 49ers takes over around their own 60, worth -3.02 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (77 yards).

PUNT -0.85 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • San Francisco 49ers would take over around their own 19, worth -0.85 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model