Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Green Bay Packers 4th & 10 at the 76

Green Bay Packers 17 – San Francisco 49ers 3

(6:09) 8-T.Masthay punts 49 yards to SF 27, Center-61-B.Goode. 38-J.Hayne to SF 33 for 6 yards (32-C.Banjo).

The Three Options

GO -1.92 EP

40% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 66, worth +1.34 EP
60% chance to fail: San Francisco 49ers takes over around their own 76, worth -4.12 EP

KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (93 yards).

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model