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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 San Francisco 49ers 4th & 5 at the 15

San Francisco 49ers 3 – Green Bay Packers 17

What Actually Happened

(4:29) (Shotgun) 7-C.Kaepernick sacked at GB 23 for -8 yards (96-M.Neal).

The Three Options

GO +1.48 EP
What Happened
  • 36% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 10, worth +5.02 EP
  • 64% chance to fail: Green Bay Packers takes over around their own 15, worth -0.54 EP
KICK +1.96 EP
Model's Pick
  • 93% chance to make a 32-yard field goal: 3 points, then Green Bay Packers takes over around their own 21 after the kickoff, worth +2.18 EP
  • 7% chance to miss: Green Bay Packers takes over around their own 25, worth -1.19 EP
PUNT -0.40 EP
  • Green Bay Packers would take over around their own 11, worth -0.40 EP

The Verdict

Chose GO Model wanted KICK instead — cost +0.48 EP