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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Green Bay Packers 4th & 6 at the 51

Green Bay Packers 17 – San Francisco 49ers 3

What Actually Happened

(:19) 8-T.Masthay punts 23 yards to SF 28, Center-61-B.Goode, out of bounds.

The Three Options

GO -0.15 EP
  • 46% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 45, worth +0.50 EP
  • 54% chance to fail: San Francisco 49ers takes over around their own 51, worth -0.70 EP
KICK +0.19 EP
Model's Pick
  • 24% chance to make a 68-yard field goal: 3 points, then San Francisco 49ers takes over around their own 21 after the kickoff, worth +2.90 EP
  • 76% chance to miss: San Francisco 49ers takes over around their own 49, worth -0.65 EP
PUNT -0.04 EP
What Happened
  • San Francisco 49ers would take over around their own 14, worth -0.04 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model