4TH&DATA
EN ES
Back to Game

Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 San Francisco 49ers 4th & 2 at the 60

San Francisco 49ers 0 – Green Bay Packers 7

What Actually Happened

(6:51) 5-B.Pinion punts 45 yards to GB 15, Center-86-K.Nelson, out of bounds.

The Three Options

GO +0.12 EP
Model's Pick
  • 57% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 58, worth +2.48 EP
  • 43% chance to fail: Green Bay Packers takes over around their own 60, worth -3.07 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (77 yards).

PUNT -0.26 EP
What Happened
  • Green Bay Packers would take over around their own 19, worth -0.26 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.37 EP