Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 Green Bay Packers 4th & 9 at the 63

Green Bay Packers 7 – San Francisco 49ers 0

(2:43) 8-T.Masthay punts 48 yards to SF 15, Center-61-B.Goode. 38-J.Hayne pushed ob at SF 21 for 6 yards (22-A.Ripkowski).

The Three Options

GO -1.40 EP

40% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 54, worth +2.11 EP
60% chance to fail: San Francisco 49ers takes over around their own 63, worth -3.78 EP

KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (80 yards).

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model