Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 San Francisco 49ers 4th & 9 at the 66

San Francisco 49ers 0 – Green Bay Packers 7

(:39) 5-B.Pinion punts 21 yards to GB 45, Center-86-K.Nelson, out of bounds.

The Three Options

GO -1.33 EP

33% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 57, worth +2.58 EP
67% chance to fail: Green Bay Packers takes over around their own 66, worth -3.29 EP

KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (83 yards).

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model