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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Green Bay Packers 4th & 2 at the 47

Green Bay Packers 7 – San Francisco 49ers 0

What Actually Happened

(14:25) 8-T.Masthay punts 37 yards to SF 10, Center-61-B.Goode, fair catch by 38-J.Hayne.

The Three Options

GO +0.51 EP
Model's Pick
  • 63% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 45, worth +2.50 EP
  • 37% chance to fail: San Francisco 49ers takes over around their own 47, worth -2.94 EP
KICK -1.49 EP
  • 32% chance to make a 64-yard field goal: 3 points, then San Francisco 49ers takes over around their own 21 after the kickoff, worth +1.76 EP
  • 68% chance to miss: San Francisco 49ers takes over around their own 49, worth -3.03 EP
PUNT -0.74 EP
What Happened
  • San Francisco 49ers would take over around their own 13, worth -0.74 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +1.25 EP