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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Minnesota Vikings 4th & 9 at the 94

Minnesota Vikings 0 – Denver Broncos 10

What Actually Happened

(9:53) 18-J.Locke punts 51 yards to DEN 43, Center-47-K.McDermott, fair catch by 10-E.Sanders.

The Three Options

GO -3.46 EP
  • 34% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 85, worth +0.61 EP
  • 66% chance to fail: Denver Broncos takes over around their own 94, worth -5.60 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (111 yards).

PUNT -3.02 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • Denver Broncos would take over around their own 52, worth -3.02 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model