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Minnesota Vikings

2-2 HC Mike Zimmer
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Denver Broncos

4-0 HC Gary Kubiak
Sunday 2015-10-04 · 16:25 ET Sports Authority Field at Mile High, Denver US ☀️ Clear Spread 7.0 O/U 43.5

Win Probability

MIN
28.5%
DEN
71.5%
☀️ Clear

Confidence: strong edge Bands are honesty-checked against held-out seasons, not a feeling about this game — see the full track record.

Key Insights

  • DEN defense: -0.251 EPA/play allowed over its last 8 games (1st in the league)
  • MIN defense: -0.034 EPA/play allowed over its last 8 games (12th in the league)
  • DEN offense: -0.127 EPA/play over its last 8 games (27th in the league)
  • MIN offense: -0.082 EPA/play over its last 8 games (20th in the league)
  • QB edge to DEN: Peyton Manning (DEN) -0.046 vs Teddy Bridgewater (MIN) -0.201 EPA/dropback
  • Played at altitude (3,000+ ft)

New to these stats? NFL 101 Glossary →

Predicted Final Score

MIN 17 10–24
–
DEN 23 16–30
Projected margin: DEN by 6 Projected total: 40

The range under each score is this model's typical error on unseen games — ±10.2 pts on margin, ±10.7 pts on total (held-out 2025). Treat the bigger number as the middle of that range, not a precise call — see the full track record.

Injury Report — Week 4

MIN

Charles Johnson WR Out Rib
Jabari Price CB Out Shoulder
Andrew Sendejo S Out Knee
Justin Trattou DE Out Foot
Audie Cole LB Questionable Ankle
Jarius Wright WR Questionable Hand
Xavier Rhodes CB Probable Concussion

DEN

Ty Sambrailo T Out Shoulder
James Casey TE Questionable Knee
Todd Davis LB Questionable Ankle
Kenny Anunike DE Probable Knee
Omar Bolden CB Probable Foot
Owen Daniels TE Probable Not Injury Related
Peyton Manning QB Probable Not Injury Related
Juwan Thompson RB Probable Neck
Louis Vasquez G Probable Knee
Kayvon Webster CB Probable Ankle
Evan Mathis G Probable Hamstring
Vance Walker DE Probable Elbow

Pulled fresh for 2015 week 4 specifically, not a cached snapshot — this changes every week as new reports come in.

Actual Result

MIN 20
–
DEN 23

Prediction missed by 3 pts on margin, 3 pts on total.

Scoring Summary

  • Q1 08:20 FG DEN (8:20) 8-B.McManus 33 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-A.Brewer, Holder-4-B.Colquitt. MIN 0 – DEN 3
  • Q2 11:35 TD DEN (11:35) (Shotgun) 23-R.Hillman left end for 72 yards, TOUCHDOWN. MIN 0 – DEN 9
  • Q2 06:02 FG DEN (6:02) 8-B.McManus 47 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-A.Brewer, Holder-4-B.Colquitt. MIN 0 – DEN 13
  • Q2 01:43 FG MIN (1:43) 3-B.Walsh 38 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-47-K.McDermott, Holder-18-J.Locke. MIN 3 – DEN 13
  • Q2 00:17 TD MIN (:17) (Shotgun) 5-T.Bridgewater pass short left to 11-M.Wallace for 4 yards, TOUCHDOWN. MIN 9 – DEN 13
  • Q3 11:15 TD DEN (11:15) 18-P.Manning pass short left to 81-O.Daniels for 1 yard, TOUCHDOWN. Penalty on MIN-52-C.Greenway, Defensive Holding, declined. MIN 10 – DEN 19
  • Q4 10:09 TD MIN (10:09) 28-A.Peterson up the middle for 48 yards, TOUCHDOWN. MIN 16 – DEN 20
  • Q4 05:16 FG MIN (5:16) 3-B.Walsh 33 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-47-K.McDermott, Holder-18-J.Locke. MIN 20 – DEN 20
  • Q4 01:54 FG DEN (1:54) 8-B.McManus 39 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-A.Brewer, Holder-4-B.Colquitt. MIN 20 – DEN 23

Fourth-Down Decisions

  • Q1 DEN 4th & 5 at the 15
    Chose KICK ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 36% p(FG) 93%

    (8:20) 8-B.McManus 33 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-A.Brewer, Holder-4-B.Colquitt.

    See the full breakdown →
  • Q1 MIN 4th & 1 at the 56
    Chose GO ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 66%

    (4:57) 5-T.Bridgewater up the middle to MIN 46 for 2 yards (59-D.Trevathan).

    See the full breakdown →
  • Q1 MIN 4th & 20 at the 43
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 19% p(FG) 39%

    (:53) 18-J.Locke punts 32 yards to DEN 11, Center-47-K.McDermott, fair catch by 10-E.Sanders.

    See the full breakdown →
  • Q2 DEN 4th & 19 at the 98
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 26%

    (14:17) 4-B.Colquitt punts 50 yards to MIN 48, Center-46-A.Brewer, out of bounds.

    See the full breakdown →
  • Q2 MIN 4th & 7 at the 20
    Chose KICK ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 30% p(FG) 89%

    (11:39) 3-B.Walsh 38 yard field goal is No Good, Wide Left, Center-47-K.McDermott, Holder-18-J.Locke.

    See the full breakdown →
  • Q2 MIN 4th & 9 at the 94
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 34%

    (9:53) 18-J.Locke punts 51 yards to DEN 43, Center-47-K.McDermott, fair catch by 10-E.Sanders.

    See the full breakdown →
  • Q2 DEN 4th & 16 at the 29
    Chose KICK ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 21% p(FG) 74%

    (6:02) 8-B.McManus 47 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-A.Brewer, Holder-4-B.Colquitt.

    See the full breakdown →
  • Q2 MIN 4th & 10 at the 20
    Chose KICK ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 25% p(FG) 89%

    (1:43) 3-B.Walsh 38 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-47-K.McDermott, Holder-18-J.Locke.

    See the full breakdown →
  • Q3 DEN 4th & 1 at the 1
    Chose GO ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 61% p(FG) 98%

    (11:15) 18-P.Manning pass short left to 81-O.Daniels for 1 yard, TOUCHDOWN. Penalty on MIN-52-C.Greenway, Defensive Holding, declined.

    See the full breakdown →
  • Q3 MIN 4th & 5 at the 68
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 41%

    (9:16) 18-J.Locke punts 54 yards to DEN 14, Center-47-K.McDermott. 10-E.Sanders to DEN 16 for 2 yards (26-T.Waynes).

    See the full breakdown →
  • Q3 DEN 4th & 7 at the 81
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 38%

    (7:29) 4-B.Colquitt punts 43 yards to MIN 38, Center-46-A.Brewer. 35-M.Sherels to MIN 45 for 7 yards (48-S.Barrett; 16-B.Fowler).

    See the full breakdown →
  • Q3 MIN 4th & 5 at the 50
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 38% p(FG) 23%

    (5:30) 18-J.Locke punts 38 yards to DEN 12, Center-47-K.McDermott, fair catch by 10-E.Sanders.

    See the full breakdown →
  • Q4 DEN 4th & 1 at the 51
    Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +1.26 EP
    p(convert) 67% p(FG) 21%

    (15:00) 4-B.Colquitt punts 48 yards to MIN 3, Center-46-A.Brewer, downed by DEN-36-K.Webster.

    See the full breakdown →
  • Q4 MIN 4th & 1 at the 48
    Chose GO ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 65% p(FG) 27%

    (10:09) 28-A.Peterson up the middle for 48 yards, TOUCHDOWN.

    See the full breakdown →
  • Q4 MIN 4th & 2 at the 15
    Chose KICK ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 49% p(FG) 93%

    (5:16) 3-B.Walsh 33 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-47-K.McDermott, Holder-18-J.Locke.

    See the full breakdown →
  • Q4 DEN 4th & 6 at the 21 late-game
    Chose KICK ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 34% p(FG) 88%

    (1:54) 8-B.McManus 39 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-A.Brewer, Holder-4-B.Colquitt.

    See the full breakdown →