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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Denver Broncos 4th & 16 at the 29

Denver Broncos 10 – Minnesota Vikings 0

What Actually Happened

(6:02) 8-B.McManus 47 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-A.Brewer, Holder-4-B.Colquitt.

The Three Options

GO +0.10 EP
  • 21% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 13, worth +5.04 EP
  • 79% chance to fail: Minnesota Vikings takes over around their own 29, worth -1.24 EP
KICK +1.19 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 74% chance to make a 46-yard field goal: 3 points, then Minnesota Vikings takes over around their own 21 after the kickoff, worth +2.23 EP
  • 26% chance to miss: Minnesota Vikings takes over around their own 39, worth -1.85 EP
PUNT -0.21 EP
  • Minnesota Vikings would take over around their own 11, worth -0.21 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model