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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Minnesota Vikings 4th & 10 at the 20

Minnesota Vikings 0 – Denver Broncos 13

What Actually Happened

(1:43) 3-B.Walsh 38 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-47-K.McDermott, Holder-18-J.Locke.

The Three Options

GO +0.59 EP
  • 25% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 10, worth +4.97 EP
  • 75% chance to fail: Denver Broncos takes over around their own 20, worth -0.87 EP
KICK +1.70 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 89% chance to make a 37-yard field goal: 3 points, then Denver Broncos takes over around their own 21 after the kickoff, worth +2.11 EP
  • 11% chance to miss: Denver Broncos takes over around their own 30, worth -1.47 EP
PUNT -0.43 EP
  • Denver Broncos would take over around their own 11, worth -0.43 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model