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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 Denver Broncos 4th & 1 at the 1

Denver Broncos 13 – Minnesota Vikings 10

What Actually Happened

(11:15) 18-P.Manning pass short left to 81-O.Daniels for 1 yard, TOUCHDOWN. Penalty on MIN-52-C.Greenway, Defensive Holding, declined.

The Three Options

GO +4.05 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 61% chance to convert, and it's a touchdown from here: worth +6.27 EP
  • 39% chance to fail: Minnesota Vikings takes over around their own 1, worth +0.65 EP
KICK +2.27 EP
  • 98% chance to make a 18-yard field goal: 3 points, then Minnesota Vikings takes over around their own 21 after the kickoff, worth +2.32 EP
  • 2% chance to miss: Minnesota Vikings takes over around their own 21, worth -0.57 EP
PUNT +0.07 EP
  • Minnesota Vikings would take over around their own 11, worth +0.07 EP

The Verdict

Chose GO ✓ matched the model