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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 Minnesota Vikings 4th & 5 at the 68

Minnesota Vikings 10 – Denver Broncos 20

What Actually Happened

(9:16) 18-J.Locke punts 54 yards to DEN 14, Center-47-K.McDermott. 10-E.Sanders to DEN 16 for 2 yards (26-T.Waynes).

The Three Options

GO -1.61 EP
  • 41% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 63, worth +1.80 EP
  • 59% chance to fail: Denver Broncos takes over around their own 68, worth -3.95 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (85 yards).

PUNT -1.19 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • Denver Broncos would take over around their own 26, worth -1.19 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model