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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 Minnesota Vikings 4th & 5 at the 50

Minnesota Vikings 10 – Denver Broncos 20

What Actually Happened

(5:30) 18-J.Locke punts 38 yards to DEN 12, Center-47-K.McDermott, fair catch by 10-E.Sanders.

The Three Options

GO -0.63 EP
  • 38% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 45, worth +2.88 EP
  • 62% chance to fail: Denver Broncos takes over around their own 50, worth -2.81 EP
KICK -1.70 EP
  • 23% chance to make a 67-yard field goal: 3 points, then Denver Broncos takes over around their own 21 after the kickoff, worth +2.05 EP
  • 77% chance to miss: Denver Broncos takes over around their own 49, worth -2.81 EP
PUNT -0.61 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • Denver Broncos would take over around their own 14, worth -0.61 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model