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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Minnesota Vikings 4th & 2 at the 15

Minnesota Vikings 17 – Denver Broncos 20

What Actually Happened

(5:16) 3-B.Walsh 33 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-47-K.McDermott, Holder-18-J.Locke.

The Three Options

GO +2.31 EP
Model's Pick
  • 49% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 13, worth +4.93 EP
  • 51% chance to fail: Denver Broncos takes over around their own 15, worth -0.21 EP
KICK +2.22 EP
What Happened
  • 93% chance to make a 32-yard field goal: 3 points, then Denver Broncos takes over around their own 21 after the kickoff, worth +2.44 EP
  • 7% chance to miss: Denver Broncos takes over around their own 25, worth -0.81 EP
PUNT -0.06 EP
  • Denver Broncos would take over around their own 11, worth -0.06 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model